Statistical Sleight of Hand

December 3rd, 2011

Well, the monthly unemployment figures for November were released yesterday and the usual confusion and negativity dominated the reporting. The news was mixed, most pundits said, as the economy added only 120,000 jobs, yet the unemployment rate fell to 8.6%. How could the rate fall by .4%  to its lowest level in 2.5 years with so few jobs created, they mused. A riddle to be sure.

To the pundits and so-called experts out there I have one suggestion- take a statistics class. And do a little research. Okay, so that’s two suggestions.

The monthly employment figures are among the most spurious statistics published by the government. Each month employers, most of whom are small, call the Department of Labor (DOL) to report the change in employment at their firms. This approach is fraught with problems, from inaccurate reporting to calls never made. Because of these issues, they revisit the previous month data in subsequent calls to the DOL. If there is a change, the previous numbers are revised.

Herein lies the answer to the aforementioned riddle.

The total of these revisions in the employment data from June to November is an increase of 242,000 jobs more than originally reported. Interestingly, these numbers are never given the light of day in the reporting. September for example, saw an increase in 117,000 jobs when originally reported. By yesterday’s report, the September number was revised up to 210,000. Said another way, the original report was too low by 80%. Wow. Mystery solved.

Instead of doing a little research and re-crunching the statistics, the pundits explain the mystery away by saying that hundreds of thousands of people simply got discouraged and stopped looking for work. This is a much juicier, negative story, even if it is not true. I never understood how all those people simply stopped looking for work. Did they also stop looking for food?

This statistical sleight of hand would be amusing if there was not so much at-stakeness in the number. Wall Street watches the number closely and lots of people lose real money on fake numbers.

I encourage the financial reporters out there to do a little more homework and report the truth.

Leading Through The Viscera

November 4th, 2011

First off, I promise that this is not an anatomy lesson.

Rather, it is a discussion about leading. Or more precisely, a recommendation about how to lead in ways that genuinely connect with and move others to action. After all, the essence of leadership is to inspire people to take action; actions which they may not imagine themselves taking, but for the impetus from their leader. I contend that this inspiration rarely, if ever, makes its way through the frontal lobes of the recipient. The more common, direct and effective route is through the viscera of those being led.

Leadership is felt more than it is understood. The brain is a great organ to leverage in the dissemination of information, to teach, train and develop new capability. But for inspiration to be felt requires the participation of different organs, specifically the heart and gut. We process inspiration, not through our heads, but in the core of our being, literally.

In the cavity that contains our heart and gut we feel the impact of those moments that move us to take action…quickly and decisively. We language the visceral impetus in a variety of ways. The speech was “heartfelt.” Their reaction was “gut level.” But the test is always the same, you know it when you feel it in your gut.

The implication on leadership is clear. If you need to call your team to bold action, to inspire them to do what they would not otherwise do, they must feel it.  In their viscera. Too many leaders try to lead their people with facts, logic, charts and graphs, through the frontal lobes. Unless you are leading the debate team, it is time to shift your leadership focus from their heads to their guts.

Job Security is Going, Going…

September 3rd, 2011

Gone. The way of the Dodo bird, milkman and two Martini lunch.

The traditional concept of job security has ridden off into the sunset like the protagonist in a sappy Western film. Of course this is not news to anyone who has been awake for the last few years.

The US economy shed 8.8 million jobs in the great recession. Since the bottom of the recession, optimists estimate that the economy has added back about 1.9 million jobs, though many of these are lower paying service sector jobs. Our unemployment rate is stubbornly persisting above 9%, with most economists predicting years before it returns to pre-recession levels of 5.8%. I assert that it will never return to these levels, for three primary reasons:

  1. The private sector has unlocked productivity and requires fewer employees than in the past. It turns out that all the talk about Lean, Six Sigma, process improvement and countless other productivity drivers were more than hot air after all.
  2. The world flattened out driven by the rise of emerging nations, the Internet, and the shift in power from large manufacturers to mega retailers.
  3. An awakening on the part of the populace and ergo our politicians, about the insane levels of Government debt and deficit spending. Add to this the reduced tax revenues in a low growth economy, and the previously rock-solid concept of public sector job security imploded.

Those individuals who are fortunate to be employed inside of this new normal job market can choose to respond in any number of ways. They can be paranoid that they will be next out the door, and so become timid, low-profile and heads-down. Or they can get angry at being overworked and under-appreciated, so they whine, complain and act-out. Either of these approaches assures a fast-track to the unemployment office.

The better response is to skill-up and stand out. Remember that with fewer employees doing more things, employers de facto need people with broad skills and the willingness and ability to continuously add to their skill set. People who are not afraid to try new things, take chances and occasionally fail…because that is how we grow. People who keep their heads up, scanning the horizon for the next big opportunity to drive sales or increase productivity. People who can partner with others, because there are fewer supervisors, and understand the multiplying effects of technology. In short, people who are bold.

Job security as we knew it is gone forever. Accept it and move on. Leave it to others to decry this new reality and pine away for the good old days. While they are busy lamenting what was, take full advantage of what is.

Making Vs.Taking Decisions

July 29th, 2011

I have always found it curious how Europeans describe “making decisions” as “taking decisions.” For the longest time, I attributed this difference to nothing more than translational noise in the channel. But lately, I have come to appreciate a deeper meaning behind this difference, one with ramifications to anyone with leadership responsibility. Read the rest of this entry »

U.S. Women’s Soccer Personifies Teamwork

July 11th, 2011

I confess that I am not a huge soccer fan. I do not know all of the positions and do not understand the rules. Despite attending my kids’ games, I never really picked up on the nuances of the sport. I thought soccer involved a blob of kids kicking frantically at the ball, punctuated by orange slices afterwards.

Then I tuned into the Women’s World Cup. Read the rest of this entry »